We did this using models-computer programs that simulate how an ecosystem will work in future, and how it will react to changes in circumstance. In our new research, we wanted to get a sense of the amount of stress that ecosystems can take before collapsing. This means one collapsing ecosystem could have a knock-on effect on neighboring ecosystems through successive feedback loops: an "ecological doom-loop" scenario, with catastrophic consequences. What really worries us is that climate extremes could hit already stressed ecosystems, which in turn transfer new or heightened stresses to some other ecosystem, and so on. The number of extreme climate events is also increasing and will only get worse. Human population growth, increased economic demands, and greenhouse gas concentrations put pressures on ecosystems and landscapes to supply food and maintain key services such as clean water. That's the gloomy conclusion of our latest research, published in Nature Sustainability. This means an ecosystem collapse that we might previously have expected to avoid until late this century could happen as soon as in the next few decades. And when you combine these stresses with an increase in climate-driven extreme weather, the date these tipping points are crossed could be brought forward by as much as 80%.
Humans are already putting ecosystems under pressure in many different ways-what we refer to as stresses. These collapses might happen sooner than you'd think.
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